Monday, March 29, 2010

MLB Preview 2010

While it seems like moments ago that we all had to watch the Evil Empire dance around their Evil layer, the 2010 baseball season is just around the corner. Every March Spring Training reunites me with my true love, America's Past Time, and it puts me in the best of moods. Last year's "blog-less" predictions were solid; with Pujols for MVP, Lincecum for Cy Young, and the Phillies winning the NL checking in, but a Sabathia Cy Young, Jason Bay MVP, and the Angels winning it all fell a little short. With this year's Power Rankings, Division and Playoff Predictions being published I guess you could say it is time for me to step up my game, and do much better than I did with the NFL.

Power Rankings

1. Boston Red Sox

It is quickly becoming evident that there will be a long wait for the sequel to the Rays' '08 success; the AL East is back intact. The Sox, who were an early exit in last year's playoffs got better in all departments. They added yet another ace in Jon Lackey to join Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Daisuke in an already stacked pitching staff. Brought in Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre to round out an all-star infield with Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, and added Jeremy Hermida, Bill Hall, and Mike Cameron to fight for the third outfield spot vacated by Jason Bay. But with all of the additions that the Sox made this off-season, the most important addition came at last year's deadline with Victor Martinez. On just about every team the catcher position equals the hole in the lineup, with only a small handful of good hitting catchers in the league. The Red Sox have one of the best in Victor Martinez, and an offense that is strong and can also grab production from the catcher spot is downright deadly. Did I mention Big Papi is healthy?

2. New York Yankees

The defending champs will not disappoint in '09. The Yankees lost Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, which seemed bad, but went on to add Marcus Thames, Curtis Granderson, and Randy Winn; lose two outfielders go out and get three. The Yanks sent Melky Cabrera along with prospects to Atlanta for Javier Vasquez, hoping his second stint with the team will be a better one, and also pulled in Nick Johnson in free agency. A-Rod's isn't missing any time this year, and Teixeira and C.C. will be settled into the big city from the start.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Despite the Sox and Yanks being my 1 and 2, I'll stick with my prediction that Halladay+Polanco=Parade down Broad St. next October. The Phillies, the NL's tyrant, coming off two World Series appearances and a title in '08, are better than ever, with one of the league's best as their ace, and finally a .300 finesse hitter to fill out their powerful lineup. Who will touch the Phillies in the NL? No one, not even mentally; and if the Phillies players can avoid their annual slumps, I see 100 wins in this ball club's future, maybe 110.

4. San Fransisco Giants

The Giants were one of baseball's surprise teams in '09 raising eyebrows with their two young aces, Matt Cain a Cy Young finalist and Tim Lincecum last year's NL Cy Young award winner. With vet Barry Zito and "no hitter throwing" Jonathan Sanchez also in the rotation, what kept baseball's G-Men from the playoffs last year was none other than there sub par lineup. With young third basemen Pablo Sandoval as one of the league's best last year, San Fran's front office was given someone to build around and they did so by adding two experienced bats in Mark Derosa and Aubrey Huff. With Bengie Molina, Aaron Rowand and young speedsters Eugenio Velez and Fred Lewis also in the supporting cast, expect this lineup of misfits to create some fireworks on the West Coast this season.

5. New York Mets

The Mets are a big question mark. With Carlos Beltran most likely not returning for opening day, and Jose Reyes still pacing a thyroid injury, the Mets could be looking at an injury-filled season that left them as one of the league's jokes in '08. On the contrary, if the Mets can field all of their starters, in at least one game in '09, their lineup will be one of the most feared in the league. Not only do they have returning stars Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright, but added Jeff Francouer at last year's deadline, and adopted Gary Matthews Jr. and Jason Bay (best hitter on the market) to their outfield in the off-season; making that the new strength of their team. The pitching for the Mets is shaky, and that is what separates them from the league's elite. If you ask Johan, he is the probably the best ever, but we all know the drill; older pitcher coming off injury is a classic staging of a career decline. Can John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey be effective? the biggest question for the Mets pitching staff, because even if Johan is Johan, Johan being Johan has not yet been enough.

6. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Over the years it has become easier and easier to say that the Angels are the league's constant. No matter who goes, who comes, or who gets hurt, the Angels have always put a team on the field that finds ways to win baseball games. Their pitching this season is phenomenal; working backwards, Joel Pineiro as their five, Ervin Santana most likely as their four, Scott Kazmir as their third, steady Joe Saunders as their two, and young gun Jered Weaver as their ace. Amazing. If I had to pin point a definite concern for the Angels in '09, I would have to say that the "smaller" guys who played huge roles in their ALCS run, Kendry Morales, Eric Aybar, and Maicer Izturis, need to maintain that level of play that could be seen as above their abilities. Because while the Angels lineup is good with recently acquired Hideki Matsui, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu, they really is no Pujols, no Ryan Howard, or no A-Rod who will always be playing at a high level, and always be getting it done for the rest of the team. This year, there will not be a game that is won by one man in the Angels' lineup; it will have to be a team effort. Last year, scrappy play on offense and defense was a winning formula for the Angels, '09 will be no different.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were not a team who went out and signed any big name guys this off-season, but due to the fact that they went to the NLCS a year ago, and have hardly changed, they are still one of the league's best. LA, has now two years in a row fallen victim to the express freight train that we call the Philadelphia Phillies in the Pennant final, and year after year they find a way to get oh so close, and excel in one of baseball's prominent divisions. With the league's best outfield, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Manny Ramirez, and an experienced infield core with Rafael Furcal, Ronnie Belliard, Casey Blake, and Russell Martin the Dodgers have a lineup that finds a way to post runs on the box score each and every night. Their pitching, with looks that don't kill but numbers that don't lie, is headed by lefty Clayton Kershaw, and anchored by savvy vet Vicente Padilla, is complimented by one of the league's strongest bullpens. Good luck staging a late inning come back on George Sherrill and flame throwing Jonathan Broxton, no wonder the Padres signed Matt Stairs.

8. Texas Rangers

The Rangers may just have the league's most explosive lineup. Power up and down, with a second basemen in Ian Kinsler who hit 31 homers in '09 and a right fielder in Nelson Cruz who hit 33, the Rangers have no trouble posting runs on the scoreboard; especially with a healthy Josh Hamilton and a newly acquired Vladimir Guerrero. The Rangers pitching is what hindered their playoff run in '09, despite an unlikely 19 win season from young Scott Feldman. To fill the whole of experience in their pitching staff the Rangers acquired Rich Harden, the Oakland stud who never really got it together in Chicago. If Harden can post the numbers that he is capable of this season the Rangers will have an Ace to anchor a team with loads of potential.

9. St. Louis Cardinals

Cy Young candidates Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter as well as baseball's god and reigning NL MVP Albert Pujols headline this club, who also re-signed Matt Holliday to a long term deal to lengthen their list of superstars this off-season. Despite their star power the key for the Cardinals this coming season is to get good years out of the unsungs; Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, and Yadier Molina among others. Ryan Ludwick who had 37 home runs in '08 and 22 more in '09 needs to continue to produce so he can protect Pujols by protecting Holliday in the clean up spot. If the Cardinals can successfully protect Pujols making it so one of the best hitters of all-time can get some pitches to hit, that along with the Cardinals dynamic duo atop their rotation will be a competent winning formula this season.

10. Chicago White Sox

In a wide open division, the White Sox are going to flourish with their deep outfield, electric infield and steady pitching staff. A spring training motto for the South Side Sox; if Peavy is on his game, the Sox will be too. Jake Peavy has been in and out of stardom for years now, and hasn't captured his potential greatness since 2007. Can Peavy be...Peavy? Well Ozzie Guillen and the rest of the bunch sure hope so, while the rest of the AL Central definitely doesn't. But the White Sox chances don't end with Jake Peavy. With Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and free agent signed Juan Pierre grazing their outfield, the Sox lineup is far from a joke. If Paul Konkero can continue to drive in runs and Gordon Beckham can use his awesome rookie season as a jumping off point, expect them to make a lot of noise.

11. Atlanta Braves

Despite the Braves being in the middle of one of the league's strongest divisions, they are my pick for this year's surprise success story. The Braves have an extremely underrated lineup with one of the MLB's best catchers with Brian McCann, rising shortstop Yunel Escobar, professional hitter Chipper Jones, and solid free agent signings Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, and Nate McLouth to fill out the squad. While the Braves sent Javier Vasquez to the Yankees via trade, their pitching is still eye opening with Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Kenshin Kawakami, all five of which who will be the backbone of the Braves this season. If the Braves can pitch, their lineup will find a way to consistently put runs on the board.

12. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners made the most commotion in the Free agent market this off-season, bringing in Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins, Chad Cordero, Cliff Lee, Casey Kotchman, and Jack Wilson. In Tom Verducci's SI article "Feel the Glove," he explains how the Seattle is redefining money ball, and using run prevention as its biggest weapon. That is what scares me about the Mariners. Yes, Seattle has an elite pitching staff with Erik Bedard, 'King' Felix Hernandez, and Cliff Lee, and has made a lot of good provisions to their lineup, keeping Ichiro as well as young Franklin Gutierrez; but any team that says that its plan is run prevention is setting itself up for failure. Think about teams like the Phillies and Yankees. If their pitching falters a game or two they can put 6, 7 runs on the board. If Seattle goes the whole season priding itself in 3-2 victories, it is going to be a rocky road in a heavy hitting AL West.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks

This is yet another team joining the "we need our pitching to do well" club. After adding Edwin Jackson, the only question mark left is if Brandon Webb will be back to form come opening day, and if that checks out, the D'Backs are back to its old ways. Dan Haren is my front runner this season for the NL Cy Young Award. With a 3.14 ERA last season, run support is just about the only thing holding him back from being in the top tier of pitchers in the MLB. The Diamondbacks strengthened the right side of their infield adding Andy Laroche and Kelly Johnson, but will also need players like Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, and Miguel Montero to pick up from where they left off last season.

14. Chicago Cubs

Just the thought of the Chicago Cubs over the last few seasons makes me shake my head. Baseball is a sport, a game, but Chicago, baseball's Soap Opera, turns it into anything but. The Cubbies added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to their outfield, but didn't add anything to a pitching staff that could be seen as a sinking ship. Soriano and Aramis Ramirez need to get their acts together, even if it means being the supporting cast for Derek Lee who is reliving his prime. Two big keys to success this season are team chemistry and the growth of Randy Wells in the middle of their rotation. Wells who was 12-10 but with a 3.05 ERA as a rookie last season, will be asked upon for a lot, and could be the unlabeled ace come June or July.

15. Colorado Rockies

While going from an NL playoff team to the middle of the pack seems like a shaky call, Colorado's pitching just cannot match up in one of the league's best divisions. Ubaldo Jimenez is still an unproven ace, and Jason Hammel and Jeff Francis are not suitable "NL West" pitchers on the back end of the rotation. The way the Rockies can excel? They need to put runs up on the board; consistently. If Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler can get on base for big guns like Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have a solid lineup this season, and have fans possibly riding a Mile High.

16. Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, and Orlando Hudson, sounds good right? Now here's the pitching, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, and Brian Duensing, sounds bad right? The Twins are this year's team that is going to be most frustrating to its fans. Score 8 runs... great, give up 9, not so much.

17. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are a tricky team. They have some of the league's best young talent with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, and a solid supporting cast consisting of Corey Hart, Casey McGehee, Carlos Gomez, and Ricky Weeks, but once again the pitching doesn't cut it. I know I sound like a broken record, but through my research this season it is becoming evident that pitching is becoming harder and harder to find. Looking at a team like the Brewers really does make me realize that Tim Lincecum may just deserve his 20 mil. The Brew Crew is resting all of its pitching in the young Yvoni Gallardo. Too bad he can only pitch every fifth day. Milwaukee better start getting the beer ready now, because come fall, there will be no champagne.

18. Tampa Bay Rays

Since '08's magical World Series run, the Rays lineup has stayed the same, with stars Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Pena, and rising stars Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, and B.J. Upton, making Tampa one of the more feared hitting teams in baseball. However, you guessed it, their pitching just doesn't cut it. Jeff Niemann, David Price, Matt Garza, and James Shields, will soon show the baseball world that it helps to have at least one prove starter in your rotation when Boston and New York roll into town, and roll out with their brooms on their shoulders.

19. Detroit Tigers

Star power is something that the Tigers are far from lacking. Justin Verlander is one of the league's best, as is Miguel Cabrera, so what the Tigers do lack is depth. Miguel Cabrera's buddies include Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, and Johnny Damon; and the fact that their are no other notables is a big problem for Detroit. From Verlander the pitching descends all the way to the point where Jim Leyland is giving Jeremy Bonderman another shot. Austin Jackson has huge shoes to fill in replacing Curtis Granderson, and without him the Tigers will have trouble producing any runs when no one is on base. Good luck though.

20. Baltimore Orioles

SI has recently said that Matt Wieters is baseball's next Joe Mauer. With so much hype comes so much responsibility, and it is quickly becoming a perfect setting for Wieters to be a bust. Looking at the rest of Baltimore's lineup, there is a lot of potential for 2010. With a strong outfield including Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold, and an infield that obtained Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada to join Brian Roberts; I am worse than Craig Biggio, but am basically him at the same time. I am not even going to say it; the Orioles lack (bleep), therefore they can't be a contender in the MLB.

21. Florida Marlins

And we have a winner! The Florida Marlins are a team in the lower half of the League that DOES have pitching. Sean West, Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco are far from the Marlins problem. However, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Coghlan, Jorge Cantu, and Dann Uggla are far from the problem as well. The problem, is that local high schools draw more fans. Demoralizing? Yeah.

22. Cincinnati Reds

It is hard to label Aroldis Chapman as a sign of hope out of the bullpen but the Reds are going in a good direction; signing players that will win back their once strong fan base. Can guys like Edison Volquez, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips carry the Reds, cross your fingers Cincinnati; they say crossing both hands is bad luck? You have nothing to lose.

23. Houston Astros

As Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Roy Oswalt slowly slip out of their primes, so does the whole Astros' organization. Ed Wade continued his trend of signing Phillies players this off-season when he added Pedro Feliz. Guess he figures if he gets players who have tasted success, it may come. But it won't.

24. Pittsburgh Pirates

Like the Marlins, Pittsburgh is a rare case of Home Field disadvantage. The less people that come, it seems like the more good players the front office trade for prospects. Whenever there has been a glimpse of hope, the organization has make sure it went away. With Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutchen blossoming into stars of tomorrow, it can't be too much longer until they bid farewell just like Xavier Nady, Jason Bay, and Nate McLouth before them.

25. Kansas City Royals

You have to hand it to the Royals, they are sort of young. But they are also... pretty bad. Greinke, yeah, he's good. Alex Gordon, not so much. David Dejesus, he's just old. Jason Kendall, even older. Come Opening Day, it will quickly become a motto among all Royals' fans, "It is not about winning but having fun."

26. Washington Nationals

Ryan Zimmerman... your a good man.

27. Cleveland Indians

"Jake Westbrook's taking the ball Opening Day!" (Everyone in the locker rooms head drops).

28. Toronto Blue Jays

"Rzepczynski? That's more letters than wins we'll have all year."

29. San Diego Padres

"Hey guys... at least we have Adrian Gonzalez?"

30. Oakland Athletics

"Haven't heard of Cliff Pennington"
"Me neither."
"Says here he is our starting shortstop this year."
"....God help us."

Division Previews

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Houston Astros
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. San Fransisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Wild Card- Los Angeles Dodgers

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics

Wild Card- New York Yankees

Playoff Predictions

NLCS- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

ALCS- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

World Series- Philadelphia Phillies beat New York Yankees

Repeat World Series? I know, wild. I said it in an earlier article, Hey Reuben, Cheers To a Happy Halladay that it was the Phillies year. I stand by it.

JD

Friday, March 26, 2010

Out Smarted? Try Out Played

When the average SAT scores of the Cornell University basketball players was shown next to the average SAT scores of the Kentucky Wildcats, the difference of some 600 points was enough to draw a smile to everyone's face. Cornell, a 12 seed dancing in the Sweet 16, was along side Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Butler; a mid-major team playing with a unique style of basketball this March. Up until last night, the conservative style was a winning formula. Meet Kentucky. The strategy of playing strong zone defense in the half court, minimizing turnovers, and launching threes until even Dick Vitale gets tired of yelling was Cornell's plan. Kentucky downsized it. The Wildcats ripped the ball out of the hands of Cornell players, ran the fast break, and slammed the ball into the rim; leaving Big Red players standing at half court wiping the dust off their faces. What Kentucky did Thursday night was not only play their way into the Elite Eight, but proved that sheer athleticism still dominates a basketball court. But why are they alone?

Kentucky has done all it can to prove that the most successful style of College basketball is still run and gun. However their "running" mates are not helping the cause. Kansas, the nation's top team, fell to 9 seed Northern Iowa in the second round, while Villanova a 2 seed, lost by seven to 10 seed St. Mary's in the second round as well. And Thursday night, if that wasn't enough, Syracuse, another 1 seed, fell to 5 seed Butler in the Sweet Sixteen. Kentucky fended off the disciplined style basketball just fine. They ran whenever Cornell went for an offensive rebound, swiped at the ball every time a guard put it on the floor, and put pressure in the face of every player for every second of 40 minutes when they yearned to be comfortable. For all white basketball teams, comfortability is the name of the game. If you let a team that is one, hardly athletic, and two, purely living and dying behind the three point line, control the tempo of a basketball game, the score will stay close long enough for them to get hot; then it becomes hell trying to climb back in.

Every top seed's worst night mare is coming true this March; parody. Basketball "intelligence" is becoming a catch phrase constantly associated with winning. As more and more teams flood the news feeds of College Basketball with their cinderella stories, the only way to assure fans that the sport isn't changing is to shut them up. Kentucky did. They showed the NCAA Basketball world that mere talent can still win big. But the rest of the "elite" aren't helping the cause.

JD

Sunday, March 14, 2010

The Most Wonderful Time of The Year

Is there a sports fan on the planet who doesn't get the ever so routine adrenaline rush every mid March? Time to get your dancin' shoes on folks! March Madness is here again.

5 Teams To Watch

1. Texas- Call me crazy. Go ahead, do it. Texas is one of the hungriest teams in this tournament solely because of the way they descended this season. Texas had a glimpse of the Nation's Number one spot this season, and tasting that kind of success triggers the biggest craving to get it back. Expect a second round date with John Wall and Co. to not be an easy victory for the 1 seed Wildcats if a victory at all.

2. Marquette- A win over Villanova in the Big East tourney will create a lot of momentum going into the Big Dance, and we all know how important momentum can be (Duke every year). The Golden Eagles led by senior Lazar Hayward, are a traditional Big East basketball team that will run a ton and shoot threes in your face. Marquette's first date is to spoil what has been just about a perfect season for New Mexico, and then most likely tussle with Conference foe West Virginia.

3. Tennessee- Tennessee is a scary team coming out a strong SEC conference where they finished third behind Vandy and Kentucky. What is dangerous about Tennessee, is that they can beat you a lot of different ways with pure athletes up and down their roster. J.P. Prince, Walt Chism, and Bobby Maze constantly create match up problems for opponents and Scotty Hopson can score at will when on. And when Bruce Pearl brings out the Orange Jacket, we know the Vol's are dancing.

4. Notre Dame- There is something about the Irish that makes me believe that they have a "Fighting" chance in this year's tourney. With a probable second round date with the Baylor Bears, Notre Dame needs continue to do what it does best; play hard-nose basketball and dominate teams from behind the arc. If Hansbrough and Abromaitis can continue to carry this team offensively, Luke Harangody will slowly take on his usual load and this team will excel.

5. North Carolina- And by watch I mean watch from your couch Roy Williams.


5 Early Exits

1. Butler- I feel like this time every year we are all in deep thought on the fate of the Butler Bulldogs. Butler to me is like Boise State in football, it is always hard to accept their consistent success because they are in the Horizon Conference. This year I don't think Butler is big enough to be a force in the Tournament. Matt Howard is their only post presence and I feel like Major Conference teams that have plethora's of big men will eat Butler up.

2. Purdue- E-Twaun Moore lost his wing man Robbie Hummel, and with Texas A&M and Duke in their half of their region it is anything but smooth sailing for the Boilermakers. I wouldn't go as far as a first round upset against 13 seed Siena, but Purdue is at risk every time they step on the floor without half of their go-to-combo.

3. Temple- The Owls have had a great season in the A10, but a first round match up with streaky Cornell and a probable second round match up with a strong Wisconsin squad is something that I cannot see the Owls escaping. A shimmer of hope? Fran Dunphy takes a page out of Cheney's book and puts a bounty on some opposing star players. Other than that Temple will need Juan Fernandez to do his best Steph Curry impression for Temple to have any shot.

4. Xavier- Xavier needs Jordan Crawford to show up big time in the first round against a sneaky Minnesota Gophers team and even more against Pittsburgh in the second round; and I just don't see him being able to string together two big games against two solid defenses. Xavier needs big man Jason Love to be of assistance to a back court that will have a lot of pressure put on them for 40 straight minutes. An unpredictable Musketeer team will not be dancing for long due to their inconsistency and semi-tough draw.

5. Lehigh- If no other predictions check out. This one will.


Final Four Favorites

Midwest Region- Kansas is the number one team for a reason; they are simply elite. The Jayhawks will not even be rattled until their Elite 8 date with Ohio State where they will send Evan Turner and the boys back to the Buckeye State. Sherron Collins has so much experience on this stage to make up for anyone on Kansas who doesn't, a leader in every sense of the word that only great teams have. Kansas will not only rise out of the Midwest but take the Championship Trophy back home as well. Not only is Kansas more experienced and disciplined than just about any team in the tournament, but the fact that they put five scoring threats on the floor at one time, doesn't hurt a little.

West Region- This is by far the weakest Region in the Tournament with the weakest 1 and 2 with Syracuse and Kansas State. Syracuse, however tinted it may be, will rise out of the West Division into the Final Four. Despite a rocky ending to the season, 'Cuse will get its act together behind Andy Rautins, Wesley Johnson, and Arinze Onuaku, and will be there

East Region- This Region is coming down to two of the tournament's best teams, the Kentucky Wildcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mountaineers were amazing in the Big East tournament behind Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks who are not only great but extremely clutch as well. Clutch teams go far in the NCAA tourney. Kentucky is really young and that inexperience in "big game" situations will show in the NCAA tournament when Big East Champion West Virginia waltz's into the Final Four.

South Region- Duke, as a number one, will soar through the South because teams that can contend with them down low can't stick with them up top, and teams that can stick with them up top cannot keep up with them down low. Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer are two of the most mature guards in the Nation, and maturity is key when in the tournament spotlight. Villanova will pose a threat to the Blue Devils, but their inability to show up in big games, and make things happen in the paint will keep them tied to the ground. Duke will set up an April 5th National Championship date with the Kansas Jayhawks, but will have a hard time keeping up with the speed and athleticism of Kansas, leaving them with second place.

JD

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Poker's Worst Hand

Putting aside the Phillies' question marks in the rotation as well as the bullpen, it is becoming safe to say that the lineup has it all. The perfect blend of power, contact, and speed, is what fans on the outside will call a group of eight guys, known around Philadelphia as Amaro's masterpiece. With a plethora of hitters ready to get etched into the lineup card, there is one problem left, where do we put them all. While some spots are obvious, as the "regulars" will expect their "normal" spots come Opening Day, the final debate is between 7 and 2, Poker's Worst Hand, that involves All-Star Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco, officially on his second stint with the Phils.

When deciding who should hit 7 and who should hit 2, you have to first evaluate which spot is more important for the team. The meat of the Phillies order, consisting of Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Ryan Howard obviously benefit when the table setters (first two hitters) are on base. On the other hand, one of the flaws in the Phils' lineup last season was getting runners home, specifically the bottom half of the order; Ibanez, Werth, Pedro Feliz. Both Polanco and Victorino have proven that they can both get on base throughout their careers, and that is why I feel as though the spot the club should be more concerned about is 7. The key stat for the seven hitter, especially in the Phillies' lineup is hitting with Runners in Scoring Position; especially with two outs. While Polanco and Victorino hit only two average points apart with RISP 2 outs, .269 (Polanco) and .267 (Victorino), the next stat to go to is simply hitting with Runners in Scoring Position, where Polanco topped Victorino by 25 points last season, posting an average of .310 when ducks were on the pond. Look at it this way, the meat of the order that I talked about with Utley, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez all collected over 90 RBI's last season, so Victorino who hit in the two spot was clearly not doing a bad job of getting on base. He also had a batting average of .292, which was seven points higher than Polanco's last season, who usually is one of the league's best in that category. The bottom line is that many rallies died last season towards the end of the lineup for the Phillies, and Polanco is a hitter who rarely strikes out and can drive in runs or just keep rallies going once they swing from the Power Guys to the bottom of the order. Don't overlook lineups after 3,4,5, because games are won and lost at any time in any inning. Adding an experienced bat like Polanco to the bottom of the order is not only benefiting the rest of the team, but giving the Phils that much more of a chance to win each and every game.

JD