Thursday, March 4, 2010

Poker's Worst Hand

Putting aside the Phillies' question marks in the rotation as well as the bullpen, it is becoming safe to say that the lineup has it all. The perfect blend of power, contact, and speed, is what fans on the outside will call a group of eight guys, known around Philadelphia as Amaro's masterpiece. With a plethora of hitters ready to get etched into the lineup card, there is one problem left, where do we put them all. While some spots are obvious, as the "regulars" will expect their "normal" spots come Opening Day, the final debate is between 7 and 2, Poker's Worst Hand, that involves All-Star Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco, officially on his second stint with the Phils.

When deciding who should hit 7 and who should hit 2, you have to first evaluate which spot is more important for the team. The meat of the Phillies order, consisting of Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Ryan Howard obviously benefit when the table setters (first two hitters) are on base. On the other hand, one of the flaws in the Phils' lineup last season was getting runners home, specifically the bottom half of the order; Ibanez, Werth, Pedro Feliz. Both Polanco and Victorino have proven that they can both get on base throughout their careers, and that is why I feel as though the spot the club should be more concerned about is 7. The key stat for the seven hitter, especially in the Phillies' lineup is hitting with Runners in Scoring Position; especially with two outs. While Polanco and Victorino hit only two average points apart with RISP 2 outs, .269 (Polanco) and .267 (Victorino), the next stat to go to is simply hitting with Runners in Scoring Position, where Polanco topped Victorino by 25 points last season, posting an average of .310 when ducks were on the pond. Look at it this way, the meat of the order that I talked about with Utley, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez all collected over 90 RBI's last season, so Victorino who hit in the two spot was clearly not doing a bad job of getting on base. He also had a batting average of .292, which was seven points higher than Polanco's last season, who usually is one of the league's best in that category. The bottom line is that many rallies died last season towards the end of the lineup for the Phillies, and Polanco is a hitter who rarely strikes out and can drive in runs or just keep rallies going once they swing from the Power Guys to the bottom of the order. Don't overlook lineups after 3,4,5, because games are won and lost at any time in any inning. Adding an experienced bat like Polanco to the bottom of the order is not only benefiting the rest of the team, but giving the Phils that much more of a chance to win each and every game.

JD

1 comment:

  1. fair enough argument, the risp is a huge factor. however i stand by my assertion that polly is a typical 2 hitter, while victorino is more of a free swinger. I really would like to see a "second" lead off man out of victorino. Think of the opportunity for small ball at the bottom of the order. If victorino gets on and ruiz and the pitcher can do their job to move him over, not to mention his ability to swipe a bag or two, then we have the top of the order to knock him in. Polonco might get the job done for the hitters behind him, but he doesn't have the game changing ability to score from first to home on just about every extra base hit. I think victorino's speed is important here. Also, if we can get Jimmy on in the first, Polonco is a safer bet to get him into scoring position.

    As for the panthers - what a seeding! I was expecting a 4, but I guess the respect for the big east just keeps getting higher and higher. nova didn't deserve that 2 seed - a 3 would have been fitting. And Temple got hosed. What would they be if they lost the a-10, a 7 seed?

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